# Decision Making
Confidence: high
Last verified: 2026-05-22
Generation: ai_assisted


## TL;DR

Effective decision-making balances intuition with analysis. Key frameworks: pros/cons list, decision matrix (weighted criteria), cost-benefit analysis, expected value, premortem (imagine failure, then work backwards). Avoid: analysis paralysis, sunk cost fallacy, confirmation bias. 'Good decision process > good outcome' — you can do everything right and still lose.

## Core Explanation

Sunk cost fallacy: 'I've already invested so much' — irrecoverable costs shouldn't influence future decisions. Decision matrix: list options as rows, criteria as columns, score each, weigh criteria, sum. Expected value: probability × outcome — for decisions under uncertainty. Regret minimization framework (Bezos): at 80, will I regret not doing this? 'The best decision makers know they'll be wrong some of the time.'

## Further Reading

- [Thinking, Fast and Slow (Daniel Kahneman)](https://us.macmillan.com/books/9780374533557/thinkingfastandslow)